Carolina Basketball: Why We Will Be OK

A while back I promised I'd write this, and then I forgot. But since Knechtel asked where it was (and since I'm stuck at work for 5 hours today and I can't bring myself to start studying for my exam 6 days before), here goes. Also, much of my readership seems to be people who are going to know a lot of this...this is more targeted at the non-guru type. And this did turn out to be rather long...so read at your own risk ;)

UNC loses its top seven scores for next year. Our leading returning scorer is David Noel, who averaged 3.9 points/game last year. The only other players who saw any action last year who are coming back are Reyshawn Terry and Quentin Thomas. Between the three of them, they scored 244 points last season. That's 6.6 points/game. Should we (as Tar Heel fans) be scared? Should the rest of the ACC be drooling for another 8-20 season?

A little. And no.

The odds of a repeat are not good for the Tar Heels. I guess if there's one bright side to come from all of this, there is no chance of having to hear the phrase "The most talented team in America" (and yes, this is not really a complement). Here are a few things we do have going for us next year:

~Three really solid players who have yet to show us what they can do.

After his freshman season, when he was playing a lot of minutes, Carolina fans were declaring that David Noel was a future NBA player. I am not going to go that far, but on last year's team, David wasn't needed for his scoring. We needed him to come in and play good defense (which he does an excellent job of), and rebound. This year, David should have a chance to be more of a leader. I think he can play in that roll.

Reyshawn Terry is a 6'8 shooting guard. 6'8! He has average handles (that's dribbling ability), and shot 60% from 3 last season (though he only took 20 3 point attempts). There is a lot of potential here that we haven't seen because he played less than 4 minutes/game last season. His big weakness was his defense. It just lacks intensity. That, and whenever an opponent drove towards the basket, Rey would leave his man and go for the steal, leaving his man wide open. But if anyone can get intensity and smarts out of him, it's Roy Williams, especially now that Rey hold a large part of Roy's focus. Did I mention he's 6'8?

Quentin Thomas was scary at time last year. He seemed out of control, and he didn't shot much (only 22 shots all season). And he only played 6.3 minutes a game. People took all of that to mean that he couldn't handle the ball, and that he couldn't shoot. This assumption is flat out untrue. Here is Quentin's scouting report coming out of highschool:

"One of the elite point guard prospects in the country, Thomas is the total package. Long and quick, with a great feel for the game, Thomas is very skilled with the ball. He can break down defenses to get his own shot or, more often, to create for a teammate. He can shoot out to three-point range with a good, not great, outside shot."

UNC has been forced to play a lot of players lately as soon as they stepped on the floor (Jawad, Ray, Sean, and Rashad). We must remember, this is not the norm. Many great players don't emerge until later in their college careers. Ideally, they shouldn't have to, assuming there are upper classman still present. Quentin has a chance to improve a lot this summer. He will never be Raymond Felton. Still, Q should be a pretty good ACC point guard.

~A top-five incoming class

UNC's incoming class is currently ranked 5th in the nation. With a few expected NBA deflections from other teams, UNC should climb to 4th (or possibly 3rd).

Tyler Hansbrough is the anchor of the class. He is consistently ranked in the top ten players in the class. Tyler is a 6'9 power forward who should start his first game at UNC. He is the most intense player I have ever watched first hand on the AAU circuit (which is admittedly a smaller pool than what Jeff or others may have seen). He goes for every rebound like his life depends on it. He goes hard to the basket with the basketball, and gets fouled. A lot. And he hits around 80% of his free throws. He was named co-MVP of the Jordan Classic All-Star Game.

Marcus Ginyard a player I've seen play many times. He is 6'4, and can play either guard position or small forward. Roy has started that Marcus is the best defensive player that he has ever recruited. But beyond his defense, Marcus is also a good scorer, though he didn't have too much of a chance to show it playing for the loaded Boo Williams AAU team. People are quick to compare Marcus to Jackie Manuel. They are both about 6'4 or 6'5 and excellent defenders, but the comparison stops there. While Marcus is not quite the athlete that Jackie is, Marcus is a very solid ball handler, and has some experience playing point guard (and while it was obvious that point was not his best position, he did alright).

Danny green is a 6'5 shooting guard. He just finished second in the McDonald's All American 3-point shooting contest, and lead his highschool team to become the best team in New York State.

Bobby Frasor is another excellent shooter, who can handle the ball. He is known as a good scorer, and he can do so in so many different ways.

Finally, UNC is still recruiting 6'8 Uche Echefu. Uche is incredibly strong, and willing to bang around in the post. Beyond that, Uche is just the type of kid you want to root for.

"It's important to note the kind of student this guy is. What’s important to Uche, isn't what's important to most college-bound kids. He just wants to go back to Nigeria and help his family run their business. He is here in the U.S. to educate himself and it just so happens that he's a pretty good basketball player and that's the avenue that will help him get where he needs to be. He hasn't seen his family in a few years. He's made a tremendous sacrifice, as big as any kid in the country, when you leave your family and haven't seen them in a long time. So here’s a kid who has worked real hard on his game, and he's done it without his family and thousands of miles from home. He's not here for the quick fix. He wants to get the paper to certify himself as a college graduate and if he plays pro ball so be it, but his main goal is to one day get back home to be with his family." - Dave Telep, Scout.com

Uche is trying to choose between Florida State, Maryland, Kentucky, and UNC. Were UNC to land Uche, we would probably have the second best class, behind only dook.

~Defense

UNC's team will lack experience, but they will have a chance to make up for it by playing defense. Roy Williams always stresses defense, and the squad next year will be equipped to play it. The team should be a tall, quick, and long team. And assuming that David, Rey, Q, and Tyler all start, that gives UNC four starters at 6'4 or taller.

~Coaching

Roy Williams is one of the top coaches coaching today. And while managing all the great players we had last year was not as easy as you might think, now he gets a chance to show what can do with a younger, less experienced roster. Roy will never lose 20 games in a season. Having talent is nice, but as he said in one of the NCAA press conferences, "You can pick any five players that you want in the NBA or college or anything, and if have five other guys that play together as a team, I'll beat you and I'll beat you a lot because that’s just the nature of the game."